GBPJPY

GBPJPY
SHORT position at 208.00
STOP LOSS above 208.50 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 207.80 / 207.50 / 207.30
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPJPY

GBPJPY
SHORT position at 207.50
STOP LOSS above 208.50 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 207.30 / 206.96 / 206.48
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPJPY . GBPUSD . USDJPY

GBP JPY is in a range between 204.15 and 206.25.
GBP USD is in a range between 1.9730 and 1.9850.
USD JPY is in a consolidation phase.The price should find a resistance below 104.30.

GBPUSD & GBPJPY

GBP USD broke 1.9800 support. GBP USD is in a range between 1.9735 and 1.9850. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are deviated. Oscillators are neutral. The price should find a support above 1.9730. If the support is broken then the target will be 1.9600.

GBP JPY is in a range between 204.15 and 205.80. The price should move around 204.15 – 206.50 .

GBPJPY

GBPJPY
LONG position at 205.20
STOP LOSS below 204.20 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 205.68 / 206.04
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPUSD
LONG position at 1.9820
STOP LOSS below 1.9750 (-70 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9900 / 2.000
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPUSD

GBPUSD
LONG position at 1.9820
STOP LOSS below 1.9750 (-70 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9900 / 2.000
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPUSD - TODAY'S HIGH 1.9852

GBPJPY . GBPUSD . USDJPY

GBP JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened indicating a bullish pressure on GBP JPY. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a resistance below 206.60. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 208.50.

GBP USD is in an uptrend. The price should find a resistance below 1.9830. The consolidation should continue. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1.9930.

USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. USD JPY moves without trend. The consolidation should continue.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY
SHORT position at 205.90
STOP LOSS above 206.90 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 205.55 / 205.96 / 204.64
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPUSD

TARGET JULY 2008 : 2.0400

GBPJPY

GBPJPY
LONG position at 202.80
STOP LOSS below 201.80 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 203.40 / 203.88 / 204.36
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPUSD

GBP USD broke 1.9500 resistance. The volatility is high. The price should continue to move in 1.9500 – 1.9630 range.
Long Term Target: 2.0400 (July)

STANDARD SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

SUP/RES S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3
EUR/USD 1.5421 1.5437 1.5450 1.5466 1.5479 1.5495 1.5508
USD/JPY 104.71 104.83 105.05 105.17 105.39 105.51 105.73
GBP/USD 1.9396 1.9415 1.9433 1.9452 1.9470 1.9489 1.9507
USD/CHF 1.0518 1.0527 1.0537 1.0546 1.0556 1.0565 1.0575
USD/CAD 1.0001 1.0012 1.0029 1.0040 1.0057 1.0068 1.0085
AUD/USD 0.9266 0.9286 0.9303 0.9323 0.9340 0.9360 0.9377
NZD/USD 0.7473 0.7512 0.7537 0.7576 0.7601 0.7640 0.7665
EUR/JPY 162.24 162.35 162.56 162.67 162.88 162.99 163.20
EUR/GBP 0.7929 0.7936 0.7941 0.7948 0.7953 0.7960 0.7965
EUR/CHF 1.6280 1.6293 1.6302 1.6315 1.6324 1.6337 1.6346
EUR/CAD 1.5474 1.5491 1.5511 1.5528 1.5548 1.5565 1.5585
EUR/AUD 1.6499 1.6528 1.6556 1.6585 1.6613 1.6642 1.6670
GBP/CHF 2.0465 2.0485 2.0502 2.0522 2.0539 2.0559 2.0576
GBP/JPY 203.83 204.05 204.39 204.61 204.95 205.17 205.51
AUD/JPY 97.49 97.64 97.87 98.02 98.25 98.40 98.63
NZD/JPY 78.64 79.00 79.30 79.66 79.96 80.32 80.62

GBPJPY . GBPUSD

S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3
GBP/JPY 203.06 203.23 203.42 203.59 203.78 203.95 204.14
GBP/USD 1.9431 1.9437 1.9445 1.9451 1.9459 1.9465 1.9473

CPI

At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI headline y/y. This is going to be highly anticipated number. Because we just had the PPI indicator, there will be a lot of speculations that the CPI is going to come out higher. I am going to trade the headline number which is more in focus right now. It is expected to come out at 2.6%. If it comes out at 2.9% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move; if it comes out at 2.4% or lower (or 2.5% if there are no conflicts), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well.

Because people are expecting higher CPI, if it comes out higher by 0.1 or 0.2, it may spike up but it might be a short living trade. Probably there are a lot of people already holding long positions on GBP/USD so they might be taking profits as soon as the number is released. Therefore, be very careful with a long trade at the time of release. Also, you might consider entering a long trade around 2.00 a.m. and get out before the news. Don't put a lot of money on such speculative trade, and make your own judge on it.

In addition to GBP/USD, try to trade some other pairs such as GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP (reverse triggers) or GBP/CHF. On the other hand, if we get 2.4% (or 2.5% with no conflicts from the other numbers), that should be a great selling opportunity on the GBP/USD because that would be totally opposite to what people are expecting right now.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD
SHORT position at 1.9465
STOP LOSS below 1.9495 (-50 pips).
THE TARGETS are 1.9414
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

GBPJPY

GBPJPY
SHORT position at 202.40
STOP LOSS above 203.40 (-100 pips).
THE TARGETS are 201.60 / 201.00
OP, SL & TP at your own risks

The Dollar

The greenback continues to give back last week's gains, falling just shy of the 1.56-level and 104 against the yen. The dollar remains under pressure amid soaring oil prices, with crude oil surging to another record above $122 per barrel and fresh calls oil to reach $150 to $200 barrel over the next two years.

Markets will turn to US economic data on Wednesday, which consist of Q1 labor costs, preliminary Q1 productivity and pending home sales.

USDJPY TODAY

USDJPY TODAY

Monday, May 05th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we are going to have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 49.1, and the expectation is coming down from 49.5. This indicator is getting hotter and hotter since they changed the method how they calculate the number so now this indicator more accurately predicts the future GDP. Therefore, it is a leading indicator for GDP and therefore it predicts what the Fed is going to do. I am going to use 1.0 trigger here. Last month 0.8 deviation moved USD/JPY by 44 pips, and in the previous month we had 67 pips move on 2.0 deviation. I believe we can get 40 to 50 pips move on 1.0 deviation on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and I would look for 40 to 50 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 to 50 pips as well.